🏠 What are household projections based on?

The household growth projections used in the standard method are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (or previously, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government).

These projections estimate how many new households (not just people) are expected to form in each local area over time — typically over a 25-year period. The data is updated regularly (e.g. 2014-based, 2016-based, 2018-based, etc.), and the standard method currently uses the 2014-based projections as the baseline.

📊 What are they based on?

They’re based on two main types of official data:

1. Population projections

  • Derived from census data and mid-year population estimates.
  • Takes into account:
    • Birth and death rates
    • Migration (both internal — people moving between local authorities — and international)

2. Household formation rates

  • Predicts how the population will form households, depending on age, gender, and other factors.
  • Based on trends from:
    • Past census data (especially how likely it is for different age groups to form independent households)
    • Housing conditions, such as availability and affordability
    • Relationship patterns (e.g. more single-person households, delayed family formation)

🔁 Why 2014-based?

The government chose to continue using the 2014-based projections for housing need, even after newer data sets were released, because:

  • They reflect higher levels of projected household growth (aligned with national targets of 300,000 homes/year)
  • Later projections (e.g. 2016, 2018-based) were seen as artificially low due to recent economic factors reducing household formation (e.g. affordability crisis forcing young adults to stay at home longer)

✅ Summary:

The household projections used in the standard method are based on:

  • Population growth trends (births, deaths, migration)
  • Household formation patterns (who is likely to form a new household, and when)
  • Long-term demographic data, mostly drawn from census and ONS sources

They are policy-neutral — intended to reflect demand, not dictate supply — but the government uses them as a starting point for planning how much housing each area should deliver.