A smarter test for when a place has done more than its fair share
🎯 Purpose:
To create a transparent, nationwide measure that shows when a local area has reached or exceeded its sustainable growth capacity — in terms of population density, infrastructure strain, housing growth, and environmental resilience.
📊 Indicator Structure:
| Category | Measure | Trigger Thresholds |
|---|---|---|
| 🧍♂️ Population Density | People per km² (excluding protected/non-developable land) | 🟡 >500/km² 🔴 >750/km² |
| 🏘️ Cumulative Housing Growth | % growth in dwellings since 2011 census | 🟡 >20% growth 🔴 >35% growth |
| 🏥 GP and School Strain | Patient list size per GP / Pupil places per school catchment | 🟡 over 95% capacity 🔴 over 110% |
| 🌱 Net Green Infrastructure Loss | Change in accessible green space per capita | 🟡 loss of >10% since 2011 🔴 >20% |
| 🏗️ % of Homes via Windfall Sites | % of homes approved outside the Local Plan in last 5 years | 🟡 >25% windfall 🔴 >40% |
| 🐝 Biodiversity Stress | Net biodiversity change on development sites (post-2023) | 🔴 if net gain <10% overall |
| 🚧 Infrastructure Response Time | Time taken to deliver physical infrastructure linked to housing expansion | 🔴 if >50% of required infra is delayed by >3 years |
🧠 How It Would Work:
- Each local planning authority reports annually into the indicator (data is already mostly available via AMRs and monitoring).
- Each settlement or district is scored across all indicators.
- A combined score triggers a status:
- ⚪ Stable
- 🟡 Stretched (requires mitigation)
- 🔴 Overdeveloped (development freeze or EIA/mitigation mandatory)
- Developers must justify new major proposals in areas marked as 🟡 or 🔴 with cumulative impact statements.
🏁 Why We Need It:
- Current systems only look at supply vs demand, not cumulative harm.
- Windfalls and tilted balance schemes are being approved in places that have already seen exponential growth.
- We need to build with intention, not as a by-product of developer strategy.
- This indicator gives councils the tools to say “enough” — and to prove it in appeals.
📌 Next Steps:
- Pilot this framework in East Hampshire (starting with Medstead and Four Marks)
- Lobby DLUHC and MPs to integrate this into future planning reform
- Publish district status maps publicly, alongside housing stats