The household growth projections used in the standard method are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (or previously, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government).
These projections estimate how many new households (not just people) are expected to form in each local area over time — typically over a 25-year period. The data is updated regularly (e.g. 2014-based, 2016-based, 2018-based, etc.), and the standard method currently uses the 2014-based projections as the baseline.
📊 What are they based on?
They’re based on two main types of official data:
1. Population projections
Derived from census data and mid-year population estimates.
Takes into account:
Birth and death rates
Migration (both internal — people moving between local authorities — and international)
2. Household formation rates
Predicts how the population will form households, depending on age, gender, and other factors.
Based on trends from:
Past census data (especially how likely it is for different age groups to form independent households)
Housing conditions, such as availability and affordability
Relationship patterns (e.g. more single-person households, delayed family formation)
🔁 Why 2014-based?
The government chose to continue using the 2014-based projections for housing need, even after newer data sets were released, because:
They reflect higher levels of projected household growth (aligned with national targets of 300,000 homes/year)
Later projections (e.g. 2016, 2018-based) were seen as artificially low due to recent economic factors reducing household formation (e.g. affordability crisis forcing young adults to stay at home longer)
✅ Summary:
The household projections used in the standard method are based on:
Population growth trends (births, deaths, migration)
Household formation patterns (who is likely to form a new household, and when)
Long-term demographic data, mostly drawn from census and ONS sources
They are policy-neutral — intended to reflect demand, not dictate supply — but the government uses them as a starting point for planning how much housing each area should deliver.
The standard method is a government-set formula used to estimate how many new homes a local authority needs to plan for each year.
It was introduced to provide consistency and transparency in how housing need is calculated across England, and is the default approach unless a council can justify using an alternative (e.g. through an up-to-date Local Plan that’s been examined and accepted).
⚙️ How does it work?
The standard method is a two-step calculation based on:
Household growth projections – These are official statistics (from ONS) that estimate how many new households are expected to form in each area over time.
Affordability adjustment – This increases the housing need figure in areas where house prices are high compared to incomes (i.e. less affordable areas must plan for more housing). – The formula uses the median house price-to-earnings ratio to adjust the total.
📌 For example: If a council area has a high affordability ratio — say, homes cost 12 times the average income — the housing need figure will be increased significantly to reflect that more homes are needed to address the imbalance.
🧮 Formula (simplified):
Minimum Annual Housing Need = ➡️ Baseline household growth + ➡️ Uplift based on local affordability
🛑 Can a council use a different method?
Only in specific cases — such as during a Local Plan review that’s:
Fully updated and subject to public consultation and examination
Using locally-specific evidence (e.g. infrastructure capacity, environmental constraints)
Approved by a Planning Inspector
But in the absence of a recent, examined Local Plan, the standard method applies automatically — and forms the basis of the 5-Year Housing Land Supply test.
Britain’s Developer Oligarchy: A Quiet Coup on Communities
1. Concentration of Wealth and Influence
Just like oligarchs in authoritarian regimes, a small number of private developers control vast land banks and dominate the housing market. 10 companies account for around half of all new homes built in the UK. These firms sit on huge land assets, gaining from value uplift created not by their investment, but by planning permissions and public infrastructure — a form of privatised public wealth.
Comparison: Oligarchs in Russia gained from rapid privatisation of public assets in the 1990s. UK developers profit from land value increases generated by public policy, not by productive effort.
2. Regulatory Capture and Lobbying Power
Developers wield disproportionate influence over national housing policy.
The “viability loophole” in planning allows them to dictate terms: when affordable housing cuts into their profits, they just say “not viable” — and councils are forced to accept it. Groups like the Home Builders Federation (HBF) actively lobby for deregulation and weaker community rights in the planning system.
Comparison: Like oligarchs who shape legislation to serve their business interests, UK developers have embedded themselves within the rule-making process, often overriding local democratic will.
3. Evasion of Accountability
Developers are not elected. Yet they make decisions that shape entire communities — from infrastructure timing to housing density.
They delay infrastructure delivery, push costs onto councils, and walk away with profits before communities feel the real consequences. Their promises are not enforceable, and planning authorities are too under-resourced to monitor or challenge them effectively.
Comparison: Oligarchs often operate beyond the reach of domestic institutions. UK developers enjoy similar immunity from scrutiny and consequence.
4. Disinformation and Narrative Manipulation
The repeated framing of concerned citizens as “NIMBYs” is ideological manipulation.
Public opposition is portrayed as selfish, when in fact it often stems from concern for transport, services, biodiversity, heritage, and democratic control. The media narrative is polarising: growth vs. obstruction, progress vs. selfishness.
Comparison: Like oligarchs who control media to discredit dissent, developers fuel binary narratives that marginalise community voices and delegitimise resistance.
5. Extraction, Not Production
The business model of volume housebuilders is not about producing good homes — it’s about land speculation and asset extraction.
Land is bought cheap, permissions are used to raise value, and delivery is drip-fed to maintain price inflation (known as land banking).
Homes are priced to maximise shareholder value, not social need.
Comparison: This mirrors oligarchic systems where control of natural resources (like oil or gas) is used for private wealth extraction — except in this case, the resource is land and planning permission.
Conclusion: A Systemic Power Imbalance
UK planning is no longer a system of public service and local control. It is a captured space, tilted in favour of a developer elite who exploit economic policy, suppress dissent, and shift costs to the public.
It’s time to name the system for what it is: An oligarchy of development — built on deregulation, narrative manipulation, and democratic erosion.
It’s fair and quite widely accepted to argue that developers in the UK hold substantial control over the amount, quality, and location of what gets built, even if not absolute. Let’s break that down:
Amount:
Land banking is a well-documented practice where developers hold onto land with planning permission without building — thereby restricting housing supply while values rise.
Planning approvals do not guarantee delivery — local councils often approve far more homes than are actually built, because delivery is in the hands of private developers.
This leads to the situation where the planning system gets blamed for delays, but the bottleneck is frequently developer-led.
Location:
Developers often choose sites with the highest profit margin, which may not align with sustainable planning or local housing needs.
Strategic land acquisitions (especially outside Local Plans) enable them to pressure councils through appeals, especially where the 5-year land supply is in question.
They can target areas with weaker planning resistance or underfunded local councils, using their legal resources to tip decisions in their favour.
Quality:
Build quality in mass developments is often criticised — due to cost-cutting, minimal compliance, and limited oversight.
Even when councils attach conditions, enforcement can be weak. Developers may negotiate away affordable housing or quality conditions post-permission using “viability” assessments.
There’s little incentive to build for long-term quality since many homes are sold on quickly and warranties are short-term.
Why this is an issue:
The current UK system relies on private-sector delivery of public goods (housing) without firm enough levers to enforce standards or timelines.
Local authorities have no power to compel building on approved sites, nor to demand development exactly where it’s needed most.
Planning policy is reactive, while developer strategy is proactive and commercially driven.
Why this is an issue:
The current UK system relies on private-sector delivery of public goods (housing) without firm enough levers to enforce standards or timelines.
Local authorities have no power to compel building on approved sites, nor to demand development exactly where it’s needed most.
Planning policy is reactive, while developer strategy is proactive and commercially driven.
So, yes:
While the state sets the rules, developers — through financial leverage, legal tactics, and control over land — can significantly shape what gets built, where, and when.
Immediate Remedies: Could Profit Caps & Delivery Penalties Work?
1. Attach Profit Cap Conditions to Planning Permission
What it means: When a developer applies for permission, a maximum allowable profit margin (e.g. 15–20%) is agreed upfront — above which windfall profits are recaptured by the local authority (through mechanisms like overage clauses or taxation).
Why it matters:
Reduces speculative land-flipping
Incentivises real development, not just planning permission hoarding
Brings land values down to more realistic levels (since developers can’t chase inflated margins)
In effect, this makes planning permission less of a “get-rich card” and more of a tool for actually building homes.
2. Introduce Penalties for Delayed Build-Out
What it means: Developers are given a strict timetable — e.g. 12 months to start, 3–5 years to complete. Failure to deliver = financial penalties, clawback of permission, or restrictions on future bids.
Why it matters:
Forces developers to build, not just bank land
Prevents artificial scarcity that keeps prices high
Helps councils plan infrastructure, school places, etc.
It realigns delivery with public need, rather than profit timing.
3. Time-Limited, Non-Renewable Permissions
What it means: If developers don’t use the permission within a defined window (e.g. 3 years), it expires and cannot be automatically renewed.
Why it matters:
Ends “landbanking by stealth”
Encourages efficient, committed applications
Returns control to local planning authorities
4. Require Viability Reassessment If Delivery Is Delayed
What it means: If a development stalls, the original viability claims (used to reduce affordable housing or community contributions) must be reassessed. If the market has shifted, public benefit must increase.
Why it matters:
Prevents developers from claiming poverty upfront, then reaping massive returns later
Builds in accountability and transparency over time
Summary: What You’re Proposing = Realignment of Incentives
Problem
Your Remedy
Developers profit most from permission, not delivery
Profit caps linked to permission
Delays are profitable
Penalties for delay and expiry of unused permissions
Planning system is gamed for maximum return
Build quality and pace become central to profit
This would reshape the system from one that rewards speculation to one that rewards actual housing delivery — on time, and in the public interest.
⏱️ Total Rollout Duration (Trial-to-SPD Adoption):
✅ Immediate launch via Cabinet pilot: 1–2 months
📋 SPD formalisation: 6–9 months
1. Pilot SPD on Profit Transparency and Fair Return
2. Tiered Developer Contributions Based on Profit Levels
3. “High-Impact Site” Classification Criteria
4. Affordable Housing Delivery Escalator
5. Early Viability Disclosure for Tilted Balance Sites
6. Public Access to All Viability Data in Registry
1. Local Plan Policy on Profit Caps
2. Developer Preference Framework
3. Enforceable Profit Cap in Planning Conditions or S106
4. National Reform Campaign
5. Relative Impact Threshold Policy
These projects always require an EIA due to their significant environmental effects. Examples include large-scale power plants, chemical works, and large infrastructure projects.
Schedule 2 Projects Relevant to Residential Developments
These projects may require an EIA if they are likely to have significant environmental effects due to factors such as their nature, size, or location. The thresholds and criteria for Schedule 2 projects are more specific.
The following thresholds apply to urban development projects, including residential developments:
Projects where the overall area of the development exceeds 5 hectares.
Example Application
Urban Setting: A proposed development of 160 dwellings in an urban area would exceed the threshold and thus would typically require an EIA.
Rural Setting: A proposed development of 40 dwellings on a 6-hectare site in a village might require an EIA, particularly if the local authority considers the potential for significant environmental effects.
Schedule 3: Selection Criteria for Screening Schedule 2 Development
The criteria for determining whether a Schedule 2 project requires an EIA include:
Consideration of the cumulative effects with other projects.
The UK regulations do indeed account for cumulative significance when assessing whether an EIA is required. The consideration of cumulative impacts ensures that the full environmental effect of multiple projects is evaluated, providing a more comprehensive assessment of potential environmental impacts.
Key Points on Cumulative Effects:
1. Cumulative Effects:
The potential for a project to have a significant impact when combined with other existing or approved projects. This can include a wide range of factors such as increased traffic, pollution levels, or changes to the landscape.
2. Screening Process:
During the screening process, the local planning authority must consider whether the project, in combination with other projects, is likely to have significant effects on the environment. This includes both current and future projects.
3. Regulation References:
Regulation 4(6): Requires consideration of the direct effects and any indirect, secondary, cumulative, short, medium, and long-term, permanent and temporary, positive and negative effects of a project.
The existing land use, the relative abundance, quality, and regenerative capacity of natural resources in the area, and the absorption capacity of the natural environment.
Lines of hedgerows dotted with trees are characteristic of the British countryside. Credit: David Noton Photography / Alamy Stock
What is a hedgerow?
A hedgerow refers to a line of bushes, shrubs, or trees, often interspersed with grasses or other vegetation, that typically forms a boundary or barrier between fields or properties in rural areas of Britain.
Hedgerows serve various purposes, including marking property boundaries, providing habitats for wildlife, and offering windbreaks for crops.
They are a distinctive feature of the British countryside and have been historically significant in agriculture and land management.
Hedgerows are particularly important for species vulnerable to extinction in the UK, such as the Hazel Dormouse, providing breeding and hibernation habitats, food resources, and enabling populations to move through the landscape.
While third parties cannot directly appeal the approval of a planning application, there are several legal and procedural avenues to challenge the decision. These include judicial review,complaints to the Local Government Ombudsman, and requesting a call-in by the Secretary of State. Each of these options focuses on ensuring that the decision-making process was lawful and procedurally correct.
The Authority Monitoring Report (AMR) is a document produced annually by local planning authorities in the United Kingdom. It monitors and reports on the implementation and effectiveness of local planning policies and the progress made towards achieving the objectives set out in the local development plan.
The AMR has two purposes:
To monitor progress towards local development documents.
To monitor the effectiveness of policies set out in local development document.
Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) is a principle and practice within environmental management and planning aimed at ensuring that development projects leave the natural environment in a measurably better state than it was before. This concept focuses on enhancing habitats and ecosystems, thereby increasing biodiversity rather than just mitigating harm.
Purpose The Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) is a standard charge that local authorities can levy on new developments to fund broader infrastructure projects. Key Features Process
In many local planning authorities, including East Hampshire District Council (EHDC), certain types of planning applications are indeed referred to the Planning Committee rather than being decided by planning officers under delegated powers.
Defra Biodiversity Metric 3.0 is a tool developed by the UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) and Natural England to measure and account for biodiversity losses and gains resulting from development or changes in land management. This metric is crucial for ensuring that new developments achieve Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG), meaning they leave the natural environment in a better state than before.
This two-stage process allows for initial flexibility while ensuring that detailed scrutiny and public consultation occur before the final development proceeds.
The references “FP18” and “FP19” specifically pertain to public footpaths numbered 18 and 19 in the local area. Public footpaths are designated paths that provide public right of way on foot, often through rural or semi-rural areas. These footpaths are typically managed by local authorities and are crucial for providing pedestrian access to various amenities and recreational areas.
In the context of the objection document, the mention of “FP18” and “FP19” indicates specific public footpaths that will be materially impacted by the proposed development. Here is what it means in detail:
A full planning application seeks detailed planning permission for a development proposal, including all aspects of the design, layout, and landscaping.
The Health Contributions Approach entails securing financial contributions from developers towards the expansion or enhancement of healthcare infrastructure. This is often facilitated through Section 106 agreements or the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL).
The Housing Delivery Test (HDT) is a measure introduced by the UK government to assess the performance of local planning authorities in delivering new homes. It compares the number of homes required to be built in a local authority area against the number of homes actually delivered over a three-year period.
Housing targets are specific goals set by government authorities to ensure an adequate supply of housing to meet the needs of the population. These targets aim to address issues such as population growth, housing affordability, and urban development. Here’s a detailed explanation of housing targets: Purpose of Housing Targets Setting Housing Targets Housing targets are … Continue reading Housing Targets
Air and Water Quality considerations focus on assessing and mitigating the impacts of a proposed development on the quality of air and water resources. These considerations ensure that new developments do not negatively affect the health, safety, and well-being of residents, ecosystems, and the environment.
Design and Appearance in the context of material planning considerations refer to the aesthetic, functional, and contextual attributes of a proposed development. These considerations ensure that new developments are visually appealing, functionally appropriate, and harmoniously integrated into the existing built and natural environment.
Economic Benefits considerations focus on evaluating the positive impacts that a proposed development might have on the local, regional, or national economy. These considerations ensure that new developments contribute to economic growth, job creation, investment, and overall economic stability and prosperity.
Environmental Impact refers to the effect that a proposed development may have on the natural environment. This consideration is crucial for ensuring that new developments do not adversely affect ecosystems, biodiversity, natural resources, and the overall quality of the environment.
Flood Risk considerations focus on the potential for flooding and the adequacy of measures to prevent and mitigate flood impacts. These considerations ensure that new developments are appropriately located and designed to minimize flood risk to property, people, and the environment.
Heritage and Conservation considerations focus on the protection and enhancement of historic and culturally significant buildings, structures, landscapes, and areas. These considerations ensure that new developments respect and preserve the historical and architectural integrity of heritage assets while contributing to the area’s overall character and identity.
Infrastructure and Services considerations focus on the availability, capacity, and adequacy of essential services and facilities required to support a proposed development. This includes transportation networks, utilities, healthcare, education, and other public services necessary for the well-being and functionality of a community.
Land Use refers to the management and modification of natural environments or wilderness into built environments such as settlements and semi-natural habitats. In the context of material planning considerations, land use focuses on the suitability and appropriateness of a particular piece of land for the proposed development, considering existing zoning laws, local plans, and the broader impacts on the community and environment.
Local and National Planning Policies are critical frameworks that guide the development and use of land in a manner that promotes sustainable growth, protects the environment, and meets the needs of communities. These policies are established at different levels of government and provide specific guidelines and regulations that must be adhered to when considering planning applications.
Public Opinion refers to the views and concerns of the community, residents, businesses, and other stakeholders regarding a proposed development. When evaluating planning applications, planning authorities consider public opinion to ensure that developments are responsive to the needs and values of the community and to enhance democratic participation in the planning process.
Residential Amenity refers to the overall quality of life and comfort experienced by residents in their homes and neighbourhoods. When evaluating planning applications, authorities consider how a proposed development will impact the living conditions of nearby residents and the general ambiance of the area.
Sustainability in planning involves ensuring that developments meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This consideration encompasses a range of economic, environmental, and social factors aimed at promoting long-term ecological balance, resource efficiency, and quality of life.
Traffic and Access are critical factors in evaluating planning applications. These considerations focus on the impact a proposed development will have on the local transportation network, road safety, accessibility for all users, and the adequacy of infrastructure to support the development.
The phrase “when assessed against the NPPF as a whole” means that any decision regarding whether the adverse impacts of a development outweigh its benefits should be made by considering the entire set of policies and principles outlined in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF).
The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) is a key document that sets out the government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. It provides a framework within which local councils can produce their own distinctive local and neighbourhood plans, which reflect the needs and priorities of their communities.
The NPPF establishes a presumption in favour of sustainable development. When the local plan is outdated, this presumption is particularly significant.
An outline planning application seeks to establish whether the scale and nature of a proposed development would be acceptable before a detailed design is put forward
The planning application appeal process allows applicants to challenge a local planning authority’s (LPA) decision to refuse planning permission, impose conditions, or fail to make a decision within the statutory period.
The term “proven Five Year Housing Land Supply” refers to a measure used in urban planning and development to ensure an adequate supply of land for housing construction over a specified period, usually five years.
Public Rights of Way (PRoW) in the UK are legally protected pathways that allow the public to travel across private and public land.
There are several types of public rights of way, each with specific legal definitions and uses: Footpaths, Bridleways, Byways Open to All Traffic (BOATs), Restricted Byways.
At this stage, the local planning authority (LPA) notifies and consults stakeholders and the public on the proposed content of the Local Plan. It is an early stage where feedback is sought to shape the final plan.
Reserved Matters are specific details of a proposed development that are not decided when outline planning permission is initially granted. These details are “reserved” for later consideration and approval by the local planning authority (LPA). The outline planning permission establishes the principle of the development, while Reserved Matters applications provide the specifics.
Whenthe relevant development plan policies for the planning application are out-of-date, permission is granted unless it can be proven that the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when assessed against the NPPF as a whole.
This presumption in favour of sustainable development can be overridden if it can be shown that the adverse impacts of granting permission would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits. This assessment must be made in the context of the NPPF as a whole.
Contextual Assessment:
The decision-maker must consider all relevant NPPF policies, including those related to environmental protection, infrastructure, design quality, and community well-being. If the cumulative adverse impacts in these areas are severe enough, they can justify refusing the application despite the presumption in favour of development.
Protection of Countryside: SPBs help protect rural areas from inappropriate development, preserving green spaces and the natural environment.
Focus on Urban Areas: By concentrating development within SPBs, local authorities can focus on revitalizing and improving urban areas, making better use of existing services and infrastructure.
Clarity and Certainty: SPBs provide clarity and certainty for developers, landowners, and the public about where development is likely to be acceptable and where it is not.
Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) are a collection of water management practices designed to mitigate the adverse effects of urban stormwater runoff and promote the natural water cycle. The primary objectives of SuDS are to manage surface water sustainably, enhance water quality, and provide amenity and biodiversity benefits. Key Components and Objectives of SuDS Common SuDS … Continue reading Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS)
The “zone of influence of all development proposals” is a comprehensive concept that encompasses all areas affected by a proposed development. Properly identifying and assessing this zone is critical to ensuring that the development is sustainable, that all potential impacts are managed, and that the needs and concerns of all affected stakeholders are addressed.
The core aim is to promote sustainable development. Even if a development has some negative impacts, it may still be approved if the overall benefits, particularly in terms of sustainability, are deemed greater.
To count towards the proven Five Year Housing Land Supply, planning approval must refer to land that meets certain criteria. These criteria include deliverability, suitability, availability, achievability, and compliance with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). Ensuring these criteria are met is essential for maintaining a robust and effective housing supply strategy that balances development needs with community and environmental considerations. This ensures that proposed developments are realistic, viable, and beneficial for both the local area and the wider region.
Water butts are large containers designed for collecting and storing rainwater, typically from the roof via downpipes. This stored water can then be used for various purposes, primarily in gardening and landscaping, to reduce the use of mains water. Key Features and Benefits Installation and Maintenance Water butts are a practical and environmentally friendly way … Continue reading Water Butts
The household growth projections used in the standard method are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (or previously, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). These projections estimate how many new households (not just people) are expected to form in each local area over time — typically over a 25-year period. The … Continue reading 🏠 What are household projections based on?
The standard method is a government-set formula used to estimate how many new homes a local authority needs to plan for each year. It was introduced to provide consistency and transparency in how housing need is calculated across England, and is the default approach unless a council can justify using an alternative (e.g. through an … Continue reading 📊 What is the standard method for calculating housing need?
